PV Magazine International intl_tech D1

发布：2026-05-28 · 事件：2026-05-28

To anyone who knows about US solar manufacturing, Elon Musk’s claim that SpaceX and Tesla are working to build 100 GW of annual PV manufacturing capacity might seem unachievable. As 2025 came to a clo...

To anyone who knows about US solar manufacturing, Elon Musk’s claim that SpaceX and Tesla are working to build 100 GW of annual PV manufacturing capacity might seem unachievable. As 2025 came to a close, experts from Intertek CEA estimated the total manufacturing capacity of solar module facilities in the United States to be slightly greater than 45 GW, moving to around 60 GW this year. The company’s Q4 2025 PV Supply, Technology, and Policy Report noted that its analysts expect an additional 16 GW to 20 GW of planned capacity to be constructed by early 2027. The scale of Musk’s ambition, as outlined at Davos, is to build potentially two times more US module manufacturing capacity than currently exists, and cells as well, in just three years. Some might say that seems far-fetched, yet the domestic need for new power generation matches Musk’s estimates for what his companies can accomplish in the near term. A 2025 study published by the American Clean Power Association estimated the United States would require more than 900 GW of new renewable generation capacity by 2040 to meet the increased energy demand from data centers and electrification of heating and transportation. Most new generation was expected to come from solar, with 647 GW forecast over a 15-year period. Musk’s ambitions for manufacturing capacity growth are not without precedent on the world stage. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China had an annual module manufacturing capacity of 1,156 GW at the end of 2024 and produced 627 GW of modules. Data from the IEA also show China added an average of nearly 200 GW in new solar module manufacturing capacity per year between 2021 and 2024. The scale of rapid growth has been proven possible, but the question remains: Can Tesla (or anyone) build 100 GW of new manufacturing capacity in the United States in just three years? To even begin such an undertaking would require a remarkable investment in equipment, real estate, power electronics and labor – including expert system integrators, programmers, machine operators and more. And that’s before considering the supply of raw materials and upstream components that would be required to triple the operating capacity of US solar manufacturing. A few suppliers of solar manufacturing equipment operate in Europe, while the majority are now based in China. According to industry experts who spoke with pv magazine, working with European suppliers offers many advantages, including faster shipping (around five weeks from order to delivery) and better software integration packages. Once on site for integration, staff can get the lines running within four to six months. However, the European companies are reputed to charge around twice what many Chinese companies do, and they simply have no experience operating at the scale Tesla is seeking. For example, Italian company Ecoprogetti, a market leader in supplying PV module assembly lines, touts a track record of 38 GW of lines installed in its entire history. Leading Chinese manufacturers of integrated module lines that sell to US companies include SC-Solar (Suzhou Shengcheng Solar Equipment), which advertises more than 800 GW of capacity installed worldwide, and Jinchen Machinery with more than 500 GW of projects built. Chinese cell equipment providers include Suzhou Maxwell Technologies, widely billed as the world’s largest supplier of solar cell screen printing equipment. Laplace said in 2025 that it had shipped more than 470 GW of equipment worldwide. Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology is also among the key suppliers. According to industry experts, shipping from these Chinese suppliers can take longer – up to eight weeks after ordering. But once on site, the Chinese integration teams can get lines operational within three months. Shortly after Musk’s announcement, a report from Reuters indicated Tesla was planning to purchase solar manufacturing equipment totaling $2.9 billion from Chinese suppliers. The report mentioned Maxwell, S.C New Energy, and Laplace – all cell production tool providers – and indicated the equipment is slated for delivery by late 2026. The numbers quoted by Reuters are in line with expectations for cell manufacturing equipment costs. According to the 2025 Benchmarks in the Detailed Cost Analysis Model from energy data resource Open EI, the equipment necessary to produce 100 GW of tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) cells per year would require an investment of $3.5 billion if purchased from the lowest-cost Chinese suppliers. But Tesla would also need module production equipment. The company’s module production capacity is limited and centered at its Buffalo, New York, facility, which has only recently begun making its newest residential modules. The Open EI Benchmarks estimate it would cost a further $1.3 billion to purchase the equipment necessary to manufacture 100 GW of solar modules. This is roughly in line with estimates from industry sources who spoke with pv mag